Momentum Moment: Quaratine 15

By Mike Berland
May 20, 2020

Flip the Script on The Quarantine 15 
What we’re seeing behind the momentum

Over the past two months, we’ve seen restaurants close and momentum surge for bread, frozen margaritas and picnics. And most recently, we started seeing signs of momentum for weight gain with emergence of the “Quarantine 15”. This presents a unique opportunity for brands and products in the health and wellness space to build momentum for the “new healthy” — healthy habits at home.

To understand what was really driving momentum for “Quarantine 15,” we ran it through our MFactor analysis

We found the MFactor for “weight gain” more than doubled, increasing from 42 to 65 since March, and the MFactor for “Quarantine 15” nearly quadrupled from 9 to 32 since March.

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This seemed like a dramatic increase to us… So we became curious:

  • Who was talking about it?

  • What they were saying?

  • Why did they feel like they were gaining weight? 

We dug deeper into the topic and fielded a comprehensive survey among 734 men and women across the US, ages 18–65.

What did we learn? 

  • Women report gaining weight 2 to 1 to men over the past 6–9 weeks. 

  • 76% of women and 60% of men attribute their weight gain to eating when stressed, anxious or feeling bored.

  • Comfort food is contributing to the swirl: 51% of women and 30% of men report feeling “more stressed” from it.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN THAT QUARANTINE 15 HAS MOMENTUM?

It means people are talking about their weight gain online more than ever. And this is unusual because as summer approaches we expect people to be focused on weight loss instead.

One one end, we’ve been hearing about the rise of digital work outs. But most Americans are focused on the opposite.

Two months into quarantine, people have been stuck inside, WFH non-stop, bored and stressed out. They started buying comfort food in bulk, baking, and snacking more than usual. Whether they’ve actually been gaining weight or actively trying not to, Americans are collectively impacted by and talking about the “Quarantine 15”.


QUARANTINE 15 HITS ON ALL 5 DRIVERS OF MOMENTUM:

  • DISRUPTION: In addition to our overall routines, quarantining has disrupted the way we stay healthy. People were sheltering at home and doing what they needed to feel healthy, safe and sane. For many, that included eating comfort food, wearing sweats and relaxing with Netflix. Two months in and people are starting to wear their usual clothes again, they’re realizing they’ve gained weight. Now they’re vocalizing their frustrations trying to figure out what to do. 

  • INNOVATION: The “new healthy” is about building healthy habits — not just a quick fix. Companies like Noom, Sun Basket, Sakara Life and Peloton have removed barriers to make it easier to incorporate healthier habits and decisions into our routine on a regular basis.

  • POLARIZATION: There’s an internal polarization in supporting the “self-care” of indulging in comfort food: on the one hand, people are eating comfort food to feel happier, but they know it is unhealthy in the long run. Americans will have to decide if they want to do something about it.

  • STICKY: As we transition to building healthy habits at home, momentum will beget momentum: once people start feeling and seeing personal momentum with their new healthy habits, they’ll continue. When they start doing something small and manageable each day, and it will build over time.

THE TAKEAWAY?

Momentum for the Quarantine 15 is a signal that we must address another health issue. We’re already seeing Americans take the first step towards addressing it by talking about the weight gain openly online to get support and advice on what to do about it.

WHAT WILL WE BE THINKING ABOUT NEXT? BOOSTING OUR IMMUNE SYSTEMS TO KEEP US STRONG.

While we wait for a vaccine to protect us from COVID-19, we are taking every precaution to avoid getting sick: quarantining / social distancing, wearing masks, gloving up and disinfecting.

Why should we put our health at risk with the food we eat and the way we move our bodies? There’s lots of science that weight gain can compromise immune systems.

And this is a new world in which we have little control. Building healthy habits is one thing that could help us take back control and build a stronger immune system. 

We’ll know it’s a signal that Americans are ready to come out of quarantine when there’s momentum for losing the Quarantine 15.

What is MFactor?

The MFactor is our proprietary algorithm that quantifies Cultural Momentum. The MFactor is a single score that is based on the Newtonian definition of Mass times Velocity. The MFactor can be tracked over time to compare anything you google:

  • People of interest (any political candidates/politicians, celebrities, artists, etc.)

  • Political issues / movements / trends

  • Brand/Product (e.g. across any industry or subcategory)

Our data has consistently been ahead of trends. Why?

We go beyond traditional methods (social media analytics, polling, etc.) by using data science algorithms to compute new metrics that reflect polarization and how “sticky” the issue is — how much people want to talk about and debate it and how emotionally invested they are in their position (velocity) — which is how things work in the real world.

kate strassman