Momentum for Video Games surges while Momentum for Esports takes a step back.
By Mike Berland
May 15, 2020
What will it take for eSports to regain momentum post quarantine?
The esports industry is taking an unexpected step back during quarantine. esports, where fans watch professionals play online video games, transformed from watching digitally and alone (on Twitch) to major in-person tournaments with all the bells and whistles of an NBA game (yes, tournaments were being held at the Barclays Center). Sheltering at home has caused esports to lose the momentum it had been building because excited spectators can no longer gather to watch.
Video games, which have been around for decades, are part and parcel of being stuck at home, so their momentum has surged. Case in point that everything old is new again.
For all intents and purposes, esports should be doing well through quarantine: it’s virtual by nature and there’s a vacuum left by no traditional sports on TV. Yet when we look into the MFactor of esports, we see an overall downward trend, dropping from 73 to 30 in the past year.
What’s behind the lack of momentum?
Anyone can play baseball at home in the backyard or a video game in the basement. Watching a professional baseball game at Yankee Stadium is a completely different experience, just like watching the 2019 Fortnite World Cup at Arthur Ashe Stadium in Queens, NY. The joy of esports is the thrill of watching with others in the esports community, whether on Twitch or amongst thousands of fans in a stadium.
With major tournaments like the 2020 Fortnite World Cup tournament canceled, esports fans are disappointed by the impact social distancing is having on their ability to watch a game in person.
The innovation and transformation towards more in-person events was driving momentum for esports. Without excitement from the in-person events, esports fans are not talking, discussing, or debating it as enthusiastically online — causing the esports industry to lose cultural relevance during quarantine.
When we looked into the MFactor for “video games,” we saw a different story. It increased from 58 to 76 since March when we started to quarantine.
Video games are experiencing a new relevance — helping people through the quarantine is what’s driving the momentum:
They don’t replace the desire to watch real sports, but with less to do and more stress, they’re a therapeutic pastime.
They provide an escape from our quarantine reality — which is why Games like Nintendo’s Animal Crossing have taken off the past 2 months
Video games don’t rely on in-person events to enjoy the experience. Video games can be enjoyed either alone or with your socially distanced friends
The good news for esports? The industry DOES have potential to come out of quarantine with real momentum. Here’s how to hit on the 5 drivers of momentum:
DISRUPTION: Continue to lean into community-oriented and in-person events / tournaments once quarantine lifts. The segue to in-person events disrupted an industry that was traditionally played in silos, alone and at home.
INNOVATION: There will always be bigger and better games and VR isn’t too far from having a major presence in the industry. The real innovation will be winning over the “swing” audience by getting people more passively involved through tangential activities like esports betting. Sports betting already exists so the innovation needs to be a twist that gets the broader audience engaged.
POLARIZATION: esports doesn’t need to be for the masses and actually benefits if it has a core group of supporters up against a group that is vocally opposed / turned off to spark discussion and debate. The more esports tries to commercialize and water down the games in an effort to win over mainstream video game players and traditional sports fans, the more likely they are to lose their core group of champions for a less passionate and loyal audience. Find the right core audience that will propel momentum for you.
STICKY: Double down on creating “star” video game / esports characters. Every good movie series, TV show and sports league has star characters to whom fans are emotionally attached and come back for time and again. Stickiness comes from storytelling and creating “stars” for fans to understand and connect with personally.
SOCIAL IMPACT: Lean into community, bringing together the introverts and misfits who feel like they’ve found their people when they attend the in-person esports events.
THE TAKEAWAY
Quarantining and social distancing is making clear how much we miss social interactions and in-person events and entertainment. Progress toward innovating on in-person events / activations might be halted by quarantine, but not canceled forever. There’s an opportunity to use this time to prepare for quarantine’s lift so esports can get back the momentum the industry had before quarantine.
What is MFactor?
The MFactor is our proprietary algorithm that quantifies Cultural Momentum. The MFactor is a single score that is based on the Newtonian definition of Mass times Velocity. The MFactor can be tracked over time to compare anything you google:
People of interest (any political candidates/politicians, celebrities, artists, etc.)
Political issues / movements / trends
Brand/Product (e.g. across any industry or subcategory)
Our data has consistently been ahead of trends. Why?
We go beyond traditional methods (social media analytics, polling, etc.) by using data science algorithms to compute new metrics that reflect polarization and how “sticky” the issue is — how much people want to talk about and debate it and how emotionally invested they are in their position (velocity) — which is how things work in the real world.