Cuomo and Trump: Unlikely Allies
MFactor analysis shows Trump and Cuomo gaining momentum while Biden is losing it. The 2020 election looks increasingly like Trump vs. Trump
By Mike Berland
March 30, 2020
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and President Donald Trump, both Queens-born street fighters seem like natural combatants. While becoming unlikely allies to battle the coronavirus pandemic, their momentum has soared as Democratic Presidential front-runner Joe Biden’s momentum has dropped significantly.
The alliance between Trump and Cuomo allows each to:
Dominate news cycles
Keep their momentum high
Help New York State get the necessary support it needs to address the coronavirus crisis
Trump is now well set-up for the 2020 general election against Biden with Cuomo strongly positioned as a front-runner for 2024 -- thanks to his increased national visibility and daily sparring with the White House.
My team at Decode_M has developed a proprietary algorithm, the MFactor, which measures Mass x Velocity to create a score that quantifies cultural momentum.
Against the backdrop of the coronavirus emergency, both Trump and Cuomo understand the need to mutually coexist in their made-for-TV moment.
Cuomo, a controversial governor whose popularity has taken frequent hits over the years, seems made for this moment—an experienced insider with the best mentors and associations in his toolbox. His father, Mario, was one of the most successful three-term governors and a national figure in his own right. A stint as HUD secretary in the Clinton administration taught him how to use the levers of federal power and access. He’s even affiliated with a political dynasty—his ex-wife is Kerry Kennedy, daughter of Robert Kennedy and mother of his three daughters. It doesn’t hurt to have the daily on-air presence of his popular brother Chris on CNN and satellite radio. Cuomo’s style—he’s a brusque control freak, whose favorite weapons are facts and numbers—which works for a time when people are desperate to find a modicum of certainty, even when the news isn’t good.
2020 Election: Trump vs. Trump
With coronavirus front and center, the 2020 Presidential election has faded into the background for now, but one thing is increasingly clear: 2020 will be an election of Trump v. Trump. When he ran in 2016, Trump presented himself as the ultimate outsider. Now his success will depend on his ability to be an effective insider and leader. The election will be a referendum on Trump’s leadership during the crisis.
Cuomo’s success actually helps Trump, and Trump seems to know it. Instead of attacking Cuomo, as he has done with other Democratic governors, he has praised him with a Trump-style explanation, telling Fox News, “One of the reasons he’s successful is we’ve helped make him successful.”
Biden’s lost momentum
And what of Joe Biden? In the last week, Biden has taken a serious hit to his momentum (his MFactor has dropped from 98 to 67) because he’s been absent from the conversation. He can’t build momentum by sitting out the biggest crisis of our era.
Directing criticism at Trump isn’t enough. Biden must find a way to own part of the solution, even if that means allying himself with the president. In the midst of the 2008 presidential election, John McCain and Barack Obama did just that. Even though Obama was from the opposing party, he presented himself as being there to help the president and the nation—and his momentum grew as a result. If I were to advise Biden, I would tell him to get out of his basement and step up to the plate, finding a way to help the country and make a difference.
What is MFactor
The MFactor is our proprietary algorithm that quantifies Cultural Momentum. The MFactor is a single score that is based on the Newtonian definition of Mass times Velocity. The MFactor can be tracked over time to compare anything you google:
People of interest (any political candidates/politicians, celebrities, artists, etc.)
Political issues / movements / trends
Brand/Product (e.g. across any industry or subcategory)
Our data has consistently been ahead of trends. Why?
We go beyond traditional methods (social media analytics, polling, etc.) by using data science algorithms to compute new metrics that reflect polarization and how “sticky” the issue is -- how much people want to talk about and debate it and how emotionally invested they are in their position (velocity) -- which is how things work in the real world.